Human life expectancy – will the young survive to 100 years?

Author: Vanessa Narayanassamy

Ivy Bean (8 November 1905 – 28 July 2010)

Once the oldest person on both

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Life expectancy at birth in the UK is consistently increasing for both males and females. A newborn baby boy could expect to live 77.7 years while a newborn baby girl could expect to live 81.9 years in 2007-2009. Life expectancy at age 65 in the UK for the period 2007-2009 is increasing as well. A man aged 65 years could be expected to live another 17.6 years and a woman aged 65 years could be expected to live another 20.2 years. Females still continue to live longer than males although the gap in life expectancy between males and females is narrowing [1]. According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of centenarians has increased from 2,600 in 1981 to 11,600 in 2009 and according to the latest 2008-based national population projections, if the current demographic trends continue, the number of centenarians will reach 87,900 by mid-2034. The major contributor to the increase in life expectancy and centenarians could be due to better living conditions and nutrition and advances in medical treatment [2].

Scientists believed that genes may contain the secret of why some people still live to 100 or more. According to Thomas Perles, head of Centagenetics, said finding genes could provide "a great window into understanding the biochemical pathways that lead to disease", and therefore, maybe, help develop drugs that could interfere with those pathways and help people maintain their health for as long as possible. Thomas was interested about the incredible survival advantage of getting to old age in good health and not the disease itself. People lifestyles can also play an important role in determining whether or not they would be living to a ripe old age [3].

In the editorial of ‘Trends in European life expectancy: a salutary view’ some have argued that there is no evidence that the world has yet to reach a limit in human life expectancy. However, this increase in life expectancy in Europe and other high-income countries may soon come to an end due to the global increase in obesity [4]. In the article of the ‘Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales: Possible plateaus in the rate of decline’, it is indicated that the recent trends in cardiovascular risk factor prevalence in younger people is disturbing and that obesity levels and type 2 diabetes have been rising for over ten years in people aged 45 and under. Physical activity levels in younger age groups people decreased slightly over the last fifteen years and smoking levels within this age group have remained high [5]. There are other factors such as recreational drugs, cannabis, alcohol, smoking, genetic and acquired heart conditions that can contribute to the increase of the risk of heart attack in younger people [6].