How to win the Rugby World Cup

Author: Eoin O'Connell

Ireland (green) in action against

Argentina (blue and white) at the

previous World Cup in France in 2007.

Image by Paolo Camera/Wikimedia.

New Zealand host Tonga in the opening match of the Rugby World Cup today. The Rugby World Cup (RWC) is simultaneously one of the easiest competitions to predict and one of the most difficult. On one hand, the four semi-finalists are almost always some combination of England, France, New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. On the other hand, New Zealand have been predicted to win nearly every RWC to date, yet they won the inaugural one and no more. They are this tournament's favourite too followed by Australia and South Africa, the Southern Hemisphere's giants. Then come two from the Northern Hemisphere - England and France.

The finalists in 2007 were South Africa (ranked 4th at the time behind New Zealand, Australia and France) and England (ranked 7th at the time behind Ireland and Argentina), who had beaten France and Australia along the way. Put simply, within the top eight, International Rugby Board (IRB) ranking appears to be a poor predictor of overall RWC performance, yet these rankings are the main indicator used to draw the RWC pools.

The pools for the RWC 2011 are as follows:

The top row should contain the four best teams in the world, the second row has the next four and the third tier (typically) the next four. Teams qualify for the remaining eight places.

French rugby fans might wonder why on earth Argentina are in the top row instead of them but this all has to do with when the pools are drawn. The rankings used are not those from last month or even last year, they are from the 1st of December 2008, directly after the Autumn international tests. Argentina finished the RWC 2007 ranked third in the world (above Australia and England) and despite a couple of losses in late 2008, hung on to fourth place for the draw.

The upshot is that pool B is pretty interesting. Based on rankings, we would expect England to win but not yet being part of a major annual tournament, Argentina are something of an unknown quantity in RWCs. They were extremely strong in 2007, beating France twice and coming in third place. Scotland are not to be written off either; along with Australia, England, France, New Zealand and South Africa, they have never failed to reach the quarter-finals of a RWC.

The other pools are easier to predict: Although New Zealand have a few nasty memories of playing France (from 1999 and particularly 2007), they have never failed to win all their pool games. France have once failed to win them all, in 2007. Outside of the RWC, New Zealand have won three out of every four matches against France but within the RWC it’s two wins each. If New Zealand have an off day, it’s possible France will top the group but much more likely that New Zealand (playing at home) will do so.

Australia are the likely winners of pool C, they look incredibly strong (having just won the Tri-Nations) and have never lost to Ireland in a RWC (though they’ve come close). Although they are going into this competition a bit shaken, Ireland would certainly be expected to beat Italy – they have made it to the quarter-finals four times and Italy never have.

That South Africa (the 2007 champions) and Wales will emerge from pool D is almost certain. Fiji have beaten Wales just once, in the 2007 RWC, and they are unlikely to pull it off again. South Africa haven’t yet played Wales in the RWC but in other competitions and tests, they’ve won 22 times out of 24.

The quarter-finals will probably look like this, the usual Six Nations (minus Italy) plus Tri-Nations:

Argentina may appear in place of Scotland but against the All Blacks, there is little chance of getting to the semi-finals for either team.

That’s the easy bit, the difficult bit comes next. What follows is an attempt to identify the winners of past tournaments based on performances within that tournament. Of the data for the previous RWCs (six in total), I asked the question “What criteria does the eventual winner always fulfil?”

Naturally, the past is no guide to the future, especially since this is only the seventh RWC. But it seems these are the footsteps in which to follow:

1) Win all the pool games
2) Score 40-55% of your points from kicks
3) Concede no more than 90 points in total

In 1991, before the try was worth 5 points, four teams met these criteria but in every other year, they uniquely identify the winner of the final. New Zealand’s focus on their running game (they usually score 30-40% of their points from kicks) may partially explain why they have trouble converting their dominance of the IRB rankings to RWC wins.

We’ll take another look at the end of the pool stages. Predicting the winner from there will obviously be easier but since RWC performance is so dependent on form, one never knows until the teams take the field what condition they are in.