How to win the Rugby World Cup – follow-up

Author: Eoin O'Connell

What a competition so far! Many of the quarter-finals spots were indeed filled by the expected teams but this seemingly orderly outcome belies just how nail-biting the pool games have been. Bravo to all the so-called second-tier teams who gave the big ones a run for their money, regular scares and the occasional defeat!

Predicted quarter-finals from the first article:

Actual quarter-finals:

In the previous RWC article at the start of the competition, I mentioned that the winners of every World Cup so far have:

1) Won all their pool games
2) Scored 40-55% of their points from kicks
3) Conceded no more than 90 points

At present, there is just one team meeting all these criteria and that is Ireland. At the knock-out stages however, all teams will shift their games towards kicking points whenever possible and scoring tries less frequently. It is likely that South Africa and England will end up in the 40-55% range, while Ireland may overshoot it.

New Zealand often undershoot the 40-55% range (in the last two RWCs they have come in under 30%), their open style of play making them the top scorers but also second-worst conceders of the quarter-finalists. South Africa have the most leeway in this respect, having conceded just 24 points so far. Ireland and England are pretty comfortable, both on 34.

Now for the next stage of the competition. That New Zealand will beat Argentina is almost a certainty. Although Argentina are an excellent team, New Zealand have only once left the RWC at the quarter-final stage and Argentina have never beaten them in any game (there was one draw in 1985).

Ireland against Wales is less clear-cut, both teams are doing well. Wales have scored more points than anyone bar New Zealand but the teams’ recent head-to-head record is in Ireland’s favour.

Against France, England have the superior record in RWC matches but France are always Dangerous; they got to the final in 1987 and 1999, took fourth place in 2003, third place in 1995 and have knocked out New Zealand twice. France have failed to reach the semi-finals just once, England have failed twice.

The remaining quarter-final, South Africa vs. Australia, promises to be the most exciting. South Africa are the better team in the competition so far, but 1) France and England are the only teams to have beaten Australia in the knockout stages, 2) South Africa are missing Frans Steyn through injury, 3) South Africa came bottom of the Tri-nations this year and 3) Australia won it spectacularly, losing just once to the All Blacks in Auckland.

It is worth pointing out the rather large discrepancy in the aggregate points scored when Northern Hemisphere teams play one another compared to when Southern Hemisphere teams play one another (see Avg. Agg. column in tables 2 and 3). By winning Pool C, Ireland have effectively kept the Hemispheres separate until the Final and this means that not only are the Southern Hemisphere teams more likely to concede points to one another, but also that these will be in the form of tries and the games more tiring. Neither premise augurs well for the teams from the Southern Hemisphere.

Since I won’t have another chance to make predictions, I may as well make my (hopeful) inferences all the way to the end. Ireland have, on balance, been better than England over the recent years of the six nations, winning three out of four matches. England soundly defeated Ireland in a warm up game just before the RWC but it is eight years since England have beaten Ireland two games in a row.

Australia have not lost to New Zealand in the RWC, they are better able to play the kind of tight game that leads to more kicks, lower scores and places in RWC finals. New Zealand are well able to beat Australia however, as shown by their record outside the RWC, and with the support of the home crowd, they should make it to the final.

This is what it's all about.

2007 winners South Africa parade the Webb

Ellis Cup. Image by E M i L i A/Wikimedia.

England have beaten Australia the last three times they have met in RWCs and they are likely to claim third place.

If Ireland meet New Zealand in the final, it is indeed improbable for the Northern Hemisphere team to take the title. Ireland are more likely to satisfy the three criteria mentioned at the start of the article but they have never, in any context, beaten the All Blacks. Once, in 1973, they ground out a draw. Surely, even without Dan Carter, New Zealand will start to play it safe – concede fewer points, kick more of them and finally win the RWC for a second time.